“Are we on the verge of a significant market shift?  My analysis of the NIFTY, NIFTY Bank, and S&P 500 suggests we might be.  Today, we’ll explore the confluence of factors that lead me to this conclusion, including key price levels, time cycles, and potential trading strategies.”

A lower low on Friday for the NIFTY, below the January low of 22,786, is a strong indication of further weakness going forward.  This maintains the current setup for the NIFTY index as a “sell on every rise,” which has been the strategy for the past few months.  For the short term, a daily close below 22,786 on the spot market would be even more compelling. Resistance on the upside would be at 23,300 to 23,400, and support on the downside would be at 22,550 and 22,150, with further support below that at the 21,700 mark.”

Interestingly, since the initial low of 23,264 registered on November 20, 2024, the NIFTY market has held around the 23,200 zone for nearly three months. This type of holding pattern, characterized by frequent lower lows, often culminates in a capitulation event.  I’ve anticipated a test of the 21,700 zone for the past three months, so we shall see what unfolds.”

From a time cycle perspective, February 17th holds significance for the NIFTY index, while February 20th looms as a particularly crucial pressure date for the banking sector, specifically the NIFTY Bank index and most individual bank stocks.  Market participants should pay close attention to the price action around these dates, especially February 20th, as it could signal a significant shift in market sentiment and direction for both the banks and the broader market.  The confluence of these time cycles warrants careful observation and analysis.”

Looking beyond the NIFTY and NIFTY Bank, next week also carries significant weight from a time cycle perspective for the S&P 500.  This confluence of potential turning points across major global indices suggests a potentially volatile period ahead. Let’s delve briefly into the factors contributing to the S&P 500’s time cycle significance next week.”

“While many dismiss the study of market cycles as mere speculation, I believe it offers a powerful lens through which to understand market dynamics. The S&P 500, in its intricate movements, provides a compelling case study.  Like a complex orchestra, with each instrument representing a different market force, the S&P 500 is approaching a powerful climax. My cyclical analysis, based on time and price cycles, suggests we’re about to witness a significant turning point, a potential market peak that could signal a significant shift in the overall composition and define the market’s trajectory for months to come.”

The S&P 500, while notoriously difficult to analyze, offers a masterclass in market behavior for those studying time and price cycles.  Its complex interplay of forces makes it a challenging but rewarding subject of study.  I’ve been tracking this index meticulously, recognizing the valuable insights it provides.  The current market structure and unfolding price action are particularly compelling from a cyclical perspective.  Anyone serious about understanding market rhythms and forecasting potential turning points should dedicate close attention to the S&P 500, especially in the coming sessions.  The lessons learned could prove invaluable.”

I’ve been anticipating a significant turning point for the S&P 500, and the January 24th date, marking a significant price and time square, reinforced that expectation.  The ensuing reversal from the 6128 high was certainly compelling.  While the index has rebounded and approached that peak again, the character of this recovery raises concerns.  Technically, the current move lacks the robust bullish characteristics typically associated with a sustained uptrend.  This divergence between price action and underlying strength warrants a cautious outlook.”

My analysis continues to point towards an impending significant peak in the S&P 500.  While a move above the 6128 level is possible, potentially leading to a topping zone between 6144 and 6219, I believe this represents a final, albeit potentially extended, exhaustion of the current bull market cycle.  If my calculations are accurate, this upcoming top will mark the culmination of this bull phase.  The market’s behavior in the coming sessions will be crucial in confirming this outlook.”

From a time cycle perspective, next week, specifically February 18th and 21st, are important turn dates to watch.”

In summary, the upcoming week promises to be a particularly eventful and potentially transformative period for both Indian and global financial markets.  With significant time cycles converging and key price levels in focus, traders and investors should be prepared for heightened volatility and the possibility of significant market shifts.  The confluence of factors affecting the NIFTY, NIFTY Bank, S&P 500, and other key indices makes this a week to watch very closely.”

“The market is sending us clear signals, and it’s crucial to understand them. While some may see short-term volatility, the underlying trend remains firmly bearish. Let’s delve deeper into the factors driving this market movement.”

https://ganninsides.com/2025/01/04/decoding-the-market-unraveling-the-current-trends/

“Markets behaved precisely as I predicted in my January 4th post. As discussed, both the Nifty and the S&P 500 fell below their given support levels during the week and are now poised for further declines.”

So “There’s nothing further to add to our previous discussion. My stance on Indian markets has been unequivocally bearish since early October, and I’ve held a bearish outlook on US indices since early December.”

The bearish trend persists, but certain market segments within India are showing signs of being oversold. This could lead to heightened volatility, but the overall market direction is likely to remain downward. I anticipate significantly lower levels for the Nifty and have shared specific price targets and their associated timelines with subscribers.”

For now, let’s discuss the near-term setup for NIFTY and the S&P 500.

NIFTY

“The November low of 23,263 is psychologically important for NIFTY, but more importantly, the zone of 23,000 to 23,100 is a more critical support level. This is because it represents a 45-degree angle support line drawn from its September high of 26,277. Therefore, a break below this zone could open up significant downside levels in the short and medium term.”

If 23000 is broken, 22500 may become a potential target in the short term.”

S&P 500

“On the S&P 500, as I discussed last week, 5840 was a critical support level. As anticipated, this support finally broke on Friday. However, the election results day gap has not yet been filled. This gap would be filled at 5781. It should only be a matter of time before the index fills this gap. Once this happens, it could open up a decline towards 5620 within the next few days. From here, global markets are about to enter a phase of extreme volatility, so be prepared for a roller coaster ride.”

“Last week, I also discussed certain tech stocks, such as Nvidia and Microsoft, which exhibited setups for a sharp decline. As predicted, both stocks experienced significant selloffs. Notably, the reversal in Nvidia has been particularly severe, potentially signaling the beginning of a broader downturn within the tech sector. A decisive break below the critical 126-130 price zone in Nvidia would strongly suggest a significant shift in sentiment and could have severe implications for investors in the technology space.”

“Things are looking a bit dicey for both NIFTY and the S&P 500 right now. With those support levels broken, it could get bumpy ahead. Best to be prepared for some volatility.”

“Today, we’ll delve into a technical analysis of the NIFTY index, examining its recent volatility and assessing the potential impact of global market dynamics.”

https://ganninsides.com/2024/12/28/nifty-sp-range-bound-and-vulnerable-to-downside/

NIFTY had an eventful week, during which the index broke below its December 20th low of 23,537 but held its November low of 23,263. Subsequently, holding that low, the index staged a recovery towards its resistance zone of 24,000 to 24,200 on Thursday.”

Interestingly, on December 5th, we also had a similar up day, which coincidentally was also the first Thursday of the month. Similarly, January 2nd was also the first Thursday of the month. So, let’s see how the next few sessions pan out for our markets.”

For next week, support for NIFTY would stand at 23,900 to 23,740 on spot. Consolidation is likely holding this support band. But once broken, the decline should resume towards 23,510 and probably towards the November low of 23,263.”

Technically, the index is still not out of the woods even in the extreme short term. As long as spot holds below 24,200 to 24,300 on a closing basis, the immediate trend would continue to stay absolutely bearish. But in case this zone is taken away, then the short-term setup would turn neutral.”

On the time front, there are no cycle dates until January 24th, so we are unlikely to get any sort of reference on the time front until January 24th. So, in this case, global markets become excessively important for our markets. And on that front too, according to our analysis, from next week, we are anticipating a decline to enter its next phase, especially on U.S. indices.”

US Market Update: S&P 500 Support at Risk

“For S&P, as I discussed last week, January 2nd was an important cycle date. On that day, we got a fresh marginal lower low below its December low. But despite that, the support of 5840 actually held on a closing basis. However, with every passing day, that support is getting weaker. I’m expecting it to finally go through as early as next week. The next cycle date is due on January 16th and 17th, so a lot can happen before that. Certain stocks such as Microsoft and Nvidia are gearing up for a scary decline. Let’s see.”

“The S&P 500 is teetering on the edge. The 5840 support level is under serious threat, and a break could trigger a sharper decline.  The weakness in leading stocks like Microsoft and Nvidia adds to the growing sense of unease. The next two weeks will be crucial in determining the near-term direction of the market. Proceed with caution.”

Nifty: Confined within a range, poised for a potential breakout, with a downside bias.

“NIFTY spent the entire past week inside the intraday range of 20th December. So, obviously, a break either side of the 20th December high or low is likely to produce a very powerful move on that side. I personally would be more interested in a move on the downside. But that does not matter as traders; we always require market confirmations to validate our expectations.”

Nifty Faces Strong Resistance: Downside Risks Remain

“For NIFTY, major resistance on the upside stands at 24,000 to 24,200 on spot. As long as the index stays below this zone, it should only be a matter of time before it breaks its December 20th low of 23,537 and subsequently breaks its November low of 23,263 in the next few days. On the time front, specifically for NIFTY, there is no dedicated major cycle date due until mid-January. This is the most dangerous thing for investors who are hoping for a respite from the selloff.”

S&P: Testing resistance, showing signs of weakness, and potentially vulnerable to a significant correction.

https://ganninsides.com/2024/12/19/time-cycles-and-market-turmoil-sp-500-and-nvidia/

“On S&P, as I discussed on December 19th, we likely have a durable top in place at 6100. In the past week, the index went very close towards that high but reversed back very sharply on Friday. Still, the index is yet to convincingly break the critical support of 5840, as I discussed earlier. Once that breaks, markets should be in for a waterfall decline towards 5620. The open gap of election results day is providing good support to the index. Once that gap fills, our projected higher degree correction would officially get confirmed. Anticipating this to get through post-critical time cycle dates of January 2nd, let’s see.”

The NIFTY’s Descent: A Tale of Timing and Technicals

https://ganninsides.com/2024/12/18/nifty-index-breach-of-support-raises-breakdown-concerns/

“NIFTY experienced a significant breakdown below its critical support of 24,200 on spot on Wednesday. As discussed in the post shared above, the initial target of this major breakdown was projected at 23,800, which the index achieved quite easily.”

The past week witnessed a confluence of three significant time cycle dates – 17th, 19th, and 20th December – culminating in one of the most bearish weeks for Indian markets in the last two years. This bearish sentiment was reflected in the NIFTY’s volatile trading, with a weekly range exceeding 1200 points from Monday to Friday.”

“I have been anticipating this market decline for several days. The current downturn is unfolding as expected, both in terms of timing and severity. As previously mentioned, this leg lower is likely to be more impactful and potentially more dangerous than the declines witnessed in October and the first half of November. However, this major downtrend will likely unfold in phases, meaning that the market won’t decline consistently every day. Therefore, it’s crucial for traders to capitalize on any rallies that emerge to initiate fresh short positions.”

On PRICE FRONT

The NIFTY is likely to encounter resistance in the zone between 23,900 and 24,300 on spot. This range may act as a significant hurdle for any upward momentum in the index.”

On TIME FRONT

“The convergence of two significant time cycle dates next week, December 26th and 27th, is likely to heighten market volatility. Traders should anticipate wider intraday swings and increased price fluctuations during this period.”

“Broadly, I am expecting the NIFTY to drop significantly in the coming weeks and months. However, for the next few days, I would expect the NIFTY to take a breather first. Then, I anticipate a lower low below its November low of 23,263. Finally, it may break its 45-degree angle support of 23,100, which has been calculated from its September high. This would be its second attempt to break this support. And this time, I would expect the NIFTY to finally break through, opening up a genuine possibility for a drop towards its 90-degree angle support, which comes significantly lower. Let’s not discuss that for now.”

Market Crash: My Prediction, Your Reality.”

INDIAN MARKETS have witnessed a relentless selloff since the start of the month. I accept few, if any, actually saw it coming. Actually, in a normal state of mind, people do not anticipate such crazy stuff. But I was one of those few analysts who actually saw this selloff coming. If you have been following me, especially since the second half of September, then you must have been aware of my views. I was very clear with my bearish view and despite the markets moving higher, I maintained my view. In fact, I did put things in technical terms.”

Let’s dive back into two of my posts from that era.

https://ganninsides.com/2024/09/13/us-market-strength-ignites-indian-rally-but-volatility-looms/

“On September 13th, following a 500-point rally in the Nifty, I shared a post highlighting a potential conflict between price and time, which could lead to volatile market movements. Regardless of current market conditions, the Nifty was well-positioned to test the 24,020 level in the coming days. As predicted, the Nifty nearly reached this level on Friday’s low. In the same post, I also mentioned my trading strategy of adding 25,000 put options, which I personally averaged until the premium reached 250. I emphasized that time cycles often achieve their predetermined goals, and this particular instance was a perfect example.”

https://ganninsides.com/2024/09/25/niftys-bullish-structure-nearing-completion/

“On September 25th, I highlighted the completion of a bullish structure in the Nifty Index. I also identified September 26th as a crucial turning point, and indeed, Nifty reached its peak on September 27th. This period was particularly significant for Nifty, as it squared its price with time on October 1st and 3rd. According to Gann Theory, such price and time squaring often signals a major trend reversal.”

Next week, October 28th, marks a critical TIME cycle date for NIFTY. The intraday low on this day will set the tone for the following trading sessions. Stay alert.”

As mentioned, I’ve been holding December 25,000 puts since late September. I plan to lock in substantial profits near the 23,900 level, but will retain a few positions until December’s end. Our cycle studies highlight the 5th August low of 23,893 as a critical pivot for Nifty. A daily close below this level would signal extreme bearishness for the overall market and potentially trigger deeper declines.  I don’t want to put a specific number here because that would deviate many from the whole process of trading with the periodic pullbacks. I have already shared the target with all of my subscribers.”

One very interesting thing that has happened during the last 4 weeks is that Indian markets have been falling while global markets, on the other hand, have been relatively quiet and stable. Although I have been expecting a selloff to take place in global markets as well, so far that hasn’t materialized exactly as I have been anticipating. This week, however, we’re seeing positive signs emerging in several US indices. Let’s delve into that.”

Navigating the Storm: A Guide to the Upcoming Market Turbulence

“This week in the U.S., there are clear and convincing signs of a major reversal on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI). However, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have not yet fully confirmed this trend.”

https://ganninsides.com/2024/10/12/nifty-finds-footing-but-u-s-market-challenges-loom/

“On October 12th, I predicted a market reversal in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) beginning on October 14th and in the S&P 500 beginning on October 16th. The indices, however, peaked one day later than anticipated.”

This week, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) and the S&P 500 have suffered declines. As discussed earlier, the DJI has already shown signs of a reversal. However, the S&P 500 still needs to break its support level, currently situated between 5720 and 5740. Once this support level is breached, we could see a sharp decline towards 5610 and 5475 in the short term. If this anticipated downturn materializes, the S&P 500 could be poised for a more substantial long-term correction.”

Tech Earnings Frenzy and Potential Downturn: What to Watch Next Week

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has decisively reversed course, signaling a potential downward trend. While the S&P 500 is still hesitant, it’s likely to follow suit, dragging the Nasdaq along with it. Next week Based on historical patterns, the upcoming time cycles around October 31st and November 1st could be pivotal for U.S. indices. Traders and investors should be prepared for increased market volatility as these dates approach. Also, next week, big tech companies are reporting their earnings, which should bring some excitement to the otherwise boring markets. Personally, I’ll be tracking Microsoft’s results very closely.”

“While the current market conditions present challenges, it’s important to maintain a balanced perspective. By closely monitoring key support levels and upcoming earnings reports, investors can make informed decisions and potentially capitalize on opportunities that may arise from market volatility.”

It was a relatively quiet week for Indian markets, which was not unexpected. As I predicted in my last Sunday’s post, the Nifty stabilized from October 8th. True to our expectations, the market did indeed stabilize from October 8th. This has created a temporary support level for the Nifty at Monday’s low of 24,694. As long as this support holds, we should see a rebound towards 25,400 in the coming days. Once this pullback is complete, I anticipate the downtrend to resume, potentially targeting lower levels around 24,400 and even 23,800 in the near future. “If NIFTY fails to retrace and falls below 24,694, near-term prospects could become more challenging. While my primary focus is on U.S. market developments, I anticipate a significant decline in NIFTY over the next few months.”

On TIME FRONT for INDIAN MARKETS I “Predict a significant shift in market trends between October 21st and 28th. Investors should be prepared for potential volatility during this period.”

US Market on the Brink: Technical Analysis Predicts Sharp Decline

https://ganninsides.com/2024/10/06/countdown-to-market-volatility/

Tick-Tock: Countdown to Market Collapse Begins

“Given our previous discussion, a market reversal in U.S. indices is imminent, with a heightened risk period extending through October 21st. Key dates to watch are October 14th for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and October 16th for the S&P 500, both of which align with significant cycle points. While the recent market activity may appear subdued, underlying developments are poised to trigger substantial shifts in the broader market landscape.”

On the price front, S&P tested the 45-degree angle resistance at 5810 on Friday. As discussed in last Sunday’s post, this level of 5810 was calculated from the intraday low of August 5th. Along with 5810, I have been highlighting the range of 5776-5866 on S&P as a very important resistance zone. Based on this analysis, I had already advised some of my U.S. clients to consider adding shorts on December futures contracts at 5810.

“I’m anticipating a potential sharp trend reversal in the U.S. markets starting next week, possibly around the 14th or 16th of October. It should be an interesting week to watch.”

NIFTY’s Steepest Fall of 2024

“NIFTY experienced its steepest weekly decline in percentage terms for the entire year of 2024 on a close-to-close basis. While the market did fall on June 4th, the weekly close for that week was actually positive. This week proved quite damaging to the overall market structure. Technically, on Friday, NIFTY achieved something it had managed to avoid throughout 2024.”

“NIFTY’s weekly chart revealed a multi-pattern breakdown, closing below 25100 on Friday. This significant decline mirrors a similar event in October 2023 but differs from the pullbacks seen in August and May.”

The NIFTY is expected to encounter strong support near 24,750 in the coming week.on TIME front Market dynamics suggest a heightened risk of a global downturn until October 21st. This trend is rooted in historical patterns.
For short term October 8th marks a critical juncture. Intraday lows on that day could serve as a barometer for potential market volatility. A sustained break below this level may exacerbate selling pressure.
Conversely, a failure to breach the October 8th low could offer temporary respite from market declines.”

“Global markets remain relatively stable, but our analysis indicates that this calm may be short-lived.

Specifically, U.S. indices are approaching a significant time-based resistance point around October 8th, which could potentially trigger a reversal. Since October 1st, U.S. markets have been poised for a downturn, but for various reasons, this reversal has been delayed. However, a change in direction seems imminent. Last week, I highlighted the 5,776-5,866 range on the S&P 500 as a strong resistance zone. More precisely, the 5,810 level represents a 45-degree angle resistance line from the August 5th low of 5,119. Therefore, from a geometric perspective, the index is nearing a critical resistance point. However, time may be a more significant factor than price. Several cycles are converging over the next three weeks, so it’s essential to be prepared for potential market volatility.”