NIFTY is waiting for NIFTY BANK to join it on downside. Looks like events are not enough to move this market on either sides. Going forward there is slight change on criteria, for near term reversal.
VIBRATION PATTERN breakdown remains at 18,480 on spot. But on TIME front we have next (TIME SQUARING) date tomorrow. So our reference level for higher degree reversal would shift higher from 18,133 to tomorrows low.
A daily close below tomorrows low would begin the process for larger reversal. If markets does not close below tomorrows low, then this TIME consuming process will continue till 18th,DECEMBER. Very low possiblity that markets continues this way till 18th, but something has to happen starting Tomorrow!
Author: SAAHIL BELIM
NIFTY BANK UPDATE
NIFTY BANK is in some other trend. Wont be fare if I call it as an uptrend,Not a downtrend as well. Few days back shared level of 42,900 as very critical support. So far holding it well. From late OCTOBER this index has been in fairytales BULL MARKET.
Because in OCTOBER it made a high of 41,700 and in DECEMBER the high is 43,515 so in the course of 45 days the range is only 1800 points. Truly historic, when was the last time we saw such price behaviour at the TOP. Think for a while, should find the answer!
TIME wise on 5th,DECEMBER it completed the TIME rotation from MARCH lows. But we would see its impact only once 42,900 breaks. Going forward 9th and 12th DECEMBER would be key turning dates, which could push prices to atleast move normally.
PRICE wise, earlier from SEPTEMBER low we did expected a bounce, but that bounce expanded further. The structure got complicated but overall setup still remains BEARISH. Sounds strange, but that’s how it is!
For short term there is a process which have to be followed which shall begin once 42,900 breaks. For medium term minimum objective is 32,155 once we get there shall post further projections. January might be that PIVOT MONTH, let’s see!
BHARTI AIRTEL UPDATE
BHARTI;AIRTEL is slowly drifting lower. But there is a slight problem here. 52,weeks high printed on NSE is 860, and on BSE is 877, this difference is above normal for an INDEX stock. So let’s take the NSE high here which was posted on 22nd,NOVEMBER.
If we calculate levels from 860 then (VIBRATION PATTERN) breakdown is projected below 810 on cash. Below 810 PATTERN Target would be 767 and 725 in coming days. 9th&20th,DECEMBER, would be key CYCLE dates here watch out for some high frequency VIBRATION near these dates!
DOWJONES UPDATE
DOWJONES;INDUSTRIALS is possibly in its last stages of its counter trend move which started from OCTOBER Lows. May be it already peaked at 34,600 or have 1 more high pending above that: doesn’t matter this move in all probabilities is near its end!
Since MARCH I have been posting BEARISH outlook on U.S. MARKETS. and markets have corrected fare enough since then. BULLISH or BEARISH Outlook in Gann Theory is measured by previous MARKET CYCLES.
This can go back several days,weeks,months or years. There are certain rules which are classified in Gann Theory which makes the job easy for finding which CYCLE is likely to repeat.
Now when we project (MARKET CYCLES) that not only specify the STOCK MARKETS particularly, MARKET CYCLE also includes ECONOMIC CYCLE, CORPORATE PROFIT CYCLE, WAR CYCLES and TRANSFORMATION CYCLES. Now when we combine these CYCLES that equals the complete MARKET CYCLE.
Later this MARKET CYCLE is projected using (TIME CYCLES). You just cannot project CYCLES using PRICE. In short term that’s fine but beyond then that PRICE holds very less significance. Currently we are following MARKET CYCLE of 1972-1973 in UNITED STATES.
It’s not the aim of this post to show the similarities between that and current CYCLE. The point which we need to understand is: we are likely to repeat that CYCLE which technically means much lower levels in EQUITIES. So when you are absolutely certain with that, then you don’t have any fear or greed.
No matter what the majority feels this BEAR MARKET is not over and the sharpest decline is yet to occur going forward. For short term $DJI have (HARMONIC CHANNEL) support at 33,200 which once breaks would open way for 32,400 31625 and 30,800 in coming days. For medium term would look for 23,000-25,000 zone for a durable BOTTOM!
70% of new investors have no idea what is a BEAR MARKET. The day when you realise that it would be all over. Few BEARISH PATTERNS are very odd and TIME consuming, but what follows next usually hits you very hard, if you get stuck on wrong side of MARKET CYCLE, Let’s see!
NIFTY UPDATE
NIFTY failed to hold the print of 18,644 on spot, which took away the MOMENTUM from the rally. Such rallies are heavily dependent on MOMENTUM, hens this slow down should be a cause of conserne: but as we discussed on FRIDAY (break of 18,644 will not signal reversal)!
So what can give that indication for reversal. As I explained on 25th,NOVEMBER higher degree reversal would be based on a process which will take TIME. but for short term we need a daily close Below 18,550 to get TIME VIBRATIONS more stronger. Once we get that we would look for VIBRATION PATTERN breakdown which would take place below 18,471 and then we go forward to 18,280 and 18,133. NIFTY is slow to respond but eventually should pick up the speed going forward. With plenty of events lined up from tomorrow need to be watchful
Better to focus on process and step by step conformations!
NIFTY UPDATE
NIFTY better holds the print of 18,644 on spot, to maintain this uptrend in its current form. Break of 18,644 would not signal a reversal, but would reduce the MOMENTUM on upside. The break-up for (NIFTY) is very intresting. BANKS at any cost have to move higher!
Because 42,900 is very important for NIFTY BANK. A daily close below 42,900 on cash will put this INDEX in week position. On TIME front, on MONDAY this INDEX will hit important geometrical angle from MARCH lows!
Not only NIFTY BANK even NIFTY AUTO would hit that angle, infact anything which made low on 8th,MARCH would be at inflection point!
For NIFTY short term setup will turn bearish once zone of 18,450-18,550 breaks on spot. TIME VIBRATIONS will get stronger below 18,550.
S&P 500 UPDATE
$S&P;500; is going very close to breakdown point but some how managing to protect key levels. This is something amazing, very rarely we see, MARKETS respecting levels to the DOT.
Coming back to our last review here,
On 23rd,NOVEMBER I shared that we do require a daily close below 3,956 to get conformation for a breakdown
and if it does not close below 3,956 then it can make higher highs closer to 4,100. On tuesday (S&P) cash closed at 3,957!
Now we are there at 4,100 so it should end here, if it is a simple correction
Because what happens in simple correction is, you make new lows that recoveres to a certain point again it falls.
And make new lows until MARKET achieves its CYCLE objectives
So far U.S. MARKETS have been in simple correction that’s why it has gone as per script since MARCH!
Going forward if this correction gets COMPLEX then things would get tricky. For now we have less reasons to believe that can happen but need to look out.we should get more clarity till 5th,DECEMBER!
RELIANCE update
RELIANCE in my earlier post on 22nd,NOVEMBER I posted the importance of this stock and why it is significant for (NIFTY). We were looking for a breakdown conformation below 2525, which dint happened.
Hens the stock rallied holding 2525 on cash! Going forward, RELIANCE is approaching the (PRICE and TIME) Interception point. PRICE wise zone of 2750-2786 would be a squaring out area
To look out for
TIME wise we are in 30th week from the TOP of 2856 made on 29th,APRIL 2022.
More then that on daily scale the stock would complete multiple cycles from 08,march low and 29,april high on 1st 2nd and 5th of DECEMBER.
So would be very intresting!
If prices face rejection from above zone then we could witness a vertical move in the stock in Coming days. Need to observe this stock, how this behaves from Tomorrow!
NIFTY UPDATE
NIFTY at 18,644 will complete a Triangle and also hit 2×3 Angle from SEPTEMBER bottom. At record highs the thing which I prefer to focus would only be supports. PATTERN supports are in the zone of 18,267-18,330 on spot.
As long as this zone holds MARKET would continue this move. The entire objective for this rally has been depended on PATTERN supports not only in INDIA but in U.S. as well.
U.S. MARKETS are very close to break the lows they printed on TIME SQUARING DATE
once they sustain below that, the counter trend bounce which started from october 13th low, would come to an end.
22nd,oct was that date. Need to watch that.
Once they conformed reversal markets would go back to october lows in very short time. Similarly NIFTY also would catch up on downside below supports
But until supports are held there is no weakness for now.
NIFTY UPDATE
NIFTY is up and above very close to record highs which it posted in OCTOBER of 2021.
But as I posted earlier it’s only a number
A break of 18,604 will not confirm the start of a new BULL MARKET which everyone is pointing.
Because even if you keep (TIME CYCLES) aside I never saw a BULL MARKET in which broader market has no participation. Even in NIFTY 80% of upside has been sponsored by 7 STOCKS. So what does this mean?
Do we look this as 7 stocks are in BULL MARKET and 43 stocks are in BEAR MARKET. Now when I ask this question the BULLISH participants fail to explain the rationale behind this. Everyone is just happy That NIFTY is at new highs. Targets of 25000 and 27000 are shared very strongly. Now in this TIME if I say we still have a move pending towards 14,400 and below this really wont go well with majority. I really can’t do much about that.
Now all this will make sense only if you are an INVESTOR. you may have that fear of missing out
But that’s your risk which continues till next OCTOBER of 2023.
So plenty of TIME left for that.
TIME wise major BEAR MARKETS Lasts around 18 months from a CYCLE TOP
So we only refer the high which is posted during the CYCLE.
So for NIFTY we will refer 18,604 and for NIFTY BANK we still would take 41,829 as CYCLE TOP. Anything above these levels do not hold any importance mathematically we can extend the move by 1X8 or 2X8 but the underline fact doesn’t change.
This was 1st part moving on for Trades. Secondly for (TRADERS) there has been no confusion on approach. The point is very simple: a daily close below 18,133 would provide initial conformation for a higher degree (REVERSAL).
So this is a process which has to be followed!
The higher degree (REVERSAL) is a long process and a close below 18,133 would be a 1st step of an overall process. Once we get that we would go a step forward and look for 2nd, conformation which would be a (HEXAGON) breakdown!
