2022 has almost ended during the year we have seen MARKETS swinging both ways. But today let’s try to understand how could 2023 play out for EQUITY MARKETS. MARKETS;in;2023 first of all if you are a medium to long term investor then I cannot wish you a (HAPPY NEW YEAR). Because it wont be a good year specially for long only investors. I kept alerting through out the year: that we are in a BEAR;MARKET for global equities and we have seen MARKETS declining globally.
But 2022 was all about a Technical price correction there was nothing like a CRASH. That was the only reason that dispite markets going down the ANALYST COMMUNITY never got uncomfortable infact they got more confident to buy dips. But unfortunately that dint worked in all SCRIPTS.
But this did worked for few STOCKS specially those who held major weight on Headline INDICES which kept retail investors happy. The actual pain was felt in BROADER MARKETS not only in INDIA but in U.S. as well. But there are very few folks those who really want to discuss the pain of small and midcaps.
I asked the same question in late NOVEMBER but got no answer, everyone was so exited that NIFTY has made a fresh all time highs. I wrote a post that TIME which no one liked. Infact in 1st 2,weeks of OCTOBER I had mentioned on a final push on upside.
Which we got, but it took extra time then what I thought price wise U.S. MARKETS did perfect pullback but NIFTY travelled bit more then what I expected. But never the less it dint changed anything.
Because the entire BEARISH view was never subject to any PRICE level or any ECONOMIC or geo-political reasons. It was entirely based on (TIME CYCLES) For NIFTY this entire upside from SEPTEMBER lows was totally deceptive and against major CYCLE Which in no ways could sustain for long.

We have seen markets give away 50% of those gains and going forward it would give up entire gains. In short term there would be upsides but in this post we are discussing market outlook for 2023. So let’s focus on that. For NIFTY 2023 average upside projections are at 23,000.
Which to me holds no relevance. According to TIME CYCLES 2023 could be a year of MARKET CRASH which would get extreme in certain TIME zones a very hard fall in EQUITY MARKETS is possible during the year which can drag NIFTY to not only towards 14,400 which I have been posting but it can go even lower then that..I have certain calculations which goes all the way down till 12,600 which could be a possiblity before 2023 ends. Sectors like BANKS and AUTO could provide that help to reach there. We are entering next phase of this BEARISH CYCLE: Which would be more painful then what we saw in 2022. In U.S. MARKETS I wrote a separate post on DJI earlier. So let’s move on to S&P;500; During the year I kept posting the target of 3,260 which will certainly come in 2023 But 3,260 was never the final target for this BEAR MARKET. It is a critical geometrical level but not something which is not breakable. My conservative projections on S&P would be 2,600-2,800 during 2023, focusing only conservatively now.
Not putting the maximum expectations at this point. U.S. MARKETS have performed exactly as per CYCLE rotation till this date, there are no irregular pattern developments like NIFTY. It is not easy to digest these levels as of today, But as the year progresses markets would keep finding appropriate and valid reasons to test new lows. It would be a gradual process to complete this BEAR MARKET decline. But good part is we may find the final low during the year and that would be a generational opportunity to create long term PORTFOLIO.
But you need to sit with appropriate cash today to invest at those levels. During the year there would be very sharp technical upsides from extreme levels but better to consider them as Trading rallies nothing beyond that.
This is going to be a very exiting year if you are a Gann Trader because there is a lot of clarity on how things are going to unfold from here. I would continue to put out short term updates on markets but the bigger picture has to be considered just to be more clear with overall structure.
So don’t mixup things specially if you are some one who prefer to trade in weekly OPTIONS. remember there are 365 days in a year, and all days will not end up with cuts. Would leave it here with festival greetings and a hope for a HAPPY NEW YEAR!

NIFTY has formed a low at 17,857 on spot, pretty close to our objectives of 17,850 which I shared earlier. We have witnessed a one way decline which was missing earlier. For short term market is at a critical support. Doesn’t mean it can not fall further.
Only point is we have achieved our extreme short term projections. We got HEXAGON breakdown today, next we would look for HARMONIC CHANNEL breakdown which would trigger below 17,680 on spot. Can take TIME let’s see!

$APPLE; is having a structure which is worth highlighting. I usually don’t post on U.S. STOCKS particularly but this is something which will have massive impact on entire U.S. MARKETS. Technically all patterns which are part of Gann Theory are BEARISH here.
No point sharing short term levels, MEDIUM TERM structure is week enough to test 100$ to 87$, in few months. I would look for 87. Structure is a structure that does not look at the size of a company or its market;cap. Watch out!

NIFTY is doing what we have been anticipating from past few days. Yesterday in afternoon patterns were very clear that we would see further expansion of PRICES on downside. Finally we got that. Going forward 18,000 remains a key level.
My short term objectives were 18,096 and 17,850 on spot. We got 18,096 next is 17,850. But once we break 18,000 that would trigger a HEXAGON PATTERN breakdown. Which would make things more week,For medium term. Below 18,000 HEXAGON targets would be 17,578. That would take TIME. NIFTY BANK also have broken key support of 42,900 now TIME VIBRATIONS have gone more stronger.
So structure is very clear now. All rallies upto yesterdays high would fizzle out. Infact that would be an opportunity to add shorts!

ADANI;ENTERPRICE have possibly made a major CYCLE TOP at 4,190. The way this STOCK behaves I wont be surprised if it goes and retest that. But if you are an investor here then this is the TIME to square it off. We may have seen the best.
Infact the entire group seems poised for a medium term correction. How deep it goes we shall figure that out later. For ADANI;ENT zone of 3,550-3,700 is a decent support which once breaks would open ways for 3,300 and 3,010 on cash. Watch out!

NIFTY is doing nothing still its showing that there is something happening. We have been discussing here that NIFTY is week for short term and we are getting Lower Lows. So far we have not seen a run away decline, but the way patterns are poised we may get that sooner then later.
Couple of things which I pointed out last time has not happenned yet, specially the break of 42,900 on NIFTY BANK is very important. We still hold our view that NIFTY BANK will break that soon. Let’s see!

ICICI;BANK; is another private sector BANK which is breaking critical PATTERN supports. There are several ways I can mark 958 as a Larger degree TOP using Geometrical extensions. But let’s keep things simple. For short term all upsides till 925 should be utilized to sell.
Targets would be 855 and 816 on cash. MEDIUM TERM break down is placed below 870. Once 870 breaks we can project deeper Targets. Till then better to consider this as,
Short term correction. Patience is the key, nothing is going to happen overnight.

NIFTY today if gives a daily close below 18,344, then would indicate (PRICE;SQUARING) Breakdown. Once this PATTERN activates it would signal Targets of 18,096 and 17,850 on spot which also co;insides with other patterns.
MARKETS are anyways week but a PRICE;SQUARING breakdown conformation would provide further comfort with respect to overall structure. NIFTY BANK still needs to take down 42,900 let’s see how long it takes to break this level. Till then need to wait!

KOTAK;BANK currently have a weakest technical structure in BANKS. The entire upmove from OCTOBER is not at all Trending, what’s happening since last 2 months is only DISEPTION which most probably have ended. Now what I am saying would hold true,
When MARKET starts to decline with higher intensity. And it corrects the entire upmove which started from JUNE lows. Eventually we would go there, but people will realise only when it actually goes there.
There is a difference between going short and not going long. I stopped going long from NOVEMBER 9th, really don’t mind missing few 100 points, now we are short waya MARCH puts. I have a certain plans to carry on with such TRADES. Coming back to KOTAK now.
The upsides till 1,900-1,920 should be utilized to add shorts. But if it breaks 1,820 this decline will enter in its next stage which would suggest Targets of 1,756 and 1,696 on cash in coming days. TIME is neutral as of now but on edge for a turn on BEARISH side!

NIFTY is down finally, not to get over exited yet. Trading profits is a different game, but broader structure is yet to damage to the extend which puts us in a comfortable position to project deeper Targets. NIFTY BANK too has started to participate on downside but we still would like to see that breaking 42,900 which is very critical TIME wise. For NIFTY HEXAGON breakdown is placed below 18,000 which puts it back in very week position.
Until this happens overall structure for NIFTY continues to stay (sell on rise). I have been sharing the step by step process for a Larger reversal, and we are getting those conformations one after another. Still we await few things.
Once everything falls in place, markets would validate everything what I had been posting since last 2 months. Let’s see.