ADANI;PORTS; gave a daily close below 764 yesterday, which confirmed next leg lower at all degrees. Took no TIME to test 1st PATTERN Target of 730 on cash. Next VIBRATION POINT is at 691, followed by 671, posted on it on 23rd,Jan, focus has to be on selling rallies.
Author: SAAHIL BELIM
KOTAK BANK achieved Target
KOTAK;BANK; still have very week structure in all private sector BANKS. We discussed same point on 19th,DECEMBER, back then, plan was straight forward: sell, and sell it on all rallies. Next leg lower here was projected below 1820, for PATTERN Targets of 1756 and 1696 on cash. Today it achieved 1756, quite slow to fall but moved down as expected. Setup is still week, gradually should test 1696 as well.
NIFTY UPDATE
NIFTY, is at a point where anyone can think what HE or SHE wants to think. Because MARKET wont challenge your view, there is nothing happening, which puts BULLISH or BEARISH arguments under any question. There is something for both camps.
Every time NIFTY goes up, we anticipate a move towards 18,300 which is the mid point of CHANNEL, but MARKET disappointed us twice during the month, let’s see this TIME. MARKET is taking extra-ordinary TIME to move, this may be happening due to EXPIRY or BUDGET, but Technically this is a week market which should be sold on rally till 18,300 or 18,370 max. As long as 17,850-18,000 Zone is held on spot the BULLISH narratives would continue to persist.
Last week we highlighted 2,critical dates for this week, 1 of them was yesterdays date, so TIME wise NIFTY have to sustain below yesterdays low. Next date is 27th, let’s see.
ABFRL view
ABFRL has shown a very intresting relationship between (PRICE and TIME). The TIME EQUATION from 20th,JUNE low and 1st,NOVEMBER high is MATHEMATICALY perfect. Earlier I saw such PATTERN in BHARTI AIRTEL, Anyone who understands Gann would figure that out!
Coming back to ABFRL now, it certainly is week, according to its (HARMONIC PATTERN) fresh break-down is placed below 251 for Targets of 231 and 216 on cash, in coming days.
TIME wise next week would be very important, it will complete few CYCLES from its TOP. Once this CYCLE completes, we should be in for a major move here.
ADANI PORTS view
ADANI;PORTS is in a very strong downtrend,all PATTERNS are Trending lower here. Once we get a daily close below 764, we should witnesse next leg down which should take it down till 671 on cash. In short term it can test 730 and 690, which would be near term PATTERN levels. Any meaning full upsides till 800 must be utilized to add shorts. Back in DECEMBER I posted a BEARISH outlook for entire ADANI group! Since then it has corrected, still do watch out.
NIFTY UPDATE
NIFTY is running out of TIME, if there has to be a rally towards 18,300 then it must happen quickly else some more consolidation here would lead to a rapid move on downside. Things are very CHOPY for (NIFTY) but in next week we do expect a Trending move, because next week would be very Important specially 23rd and 27th,January would be a decisive CYCLE DATE for (NIFTY) On 23rd,January (NIFTY) will hit, 1X1 TIME ANGLE from DECEMBER 1st, High.
On 27th,January we have (TIME SQUARING DATE) for all MARKETS. Let’s see, TIME has arrived to stay on edge, also keep an eye on VIX Expecting VIX to print 18 within few days. Plenty of diversions are visible between (NIFTY), (NIFTY BANK) and (INDIA VIX) not a tough job to figure out how this would end. MARKET is setting up for a significant move, and we expect that move would be on downside. Let’s see, once we close below 17,980 upside probability should reduce rapidly!
DXY UPDATE
DXY should be at an end of corrective decline closer to 101, back on 15th,NOVEMBER,2022, we expected it to take support near 104.25 range but it went below that, hens the correction continued. We still hold our BULLISH view here for MEDIUM TERM, but for short term we are closely watching level of 101 on DOLLAR INDEX SPOT.
Since last few weeks incrimental weakness is coming from JPY, Now that too is approaching critical PATTERN support at 125-127, so let’s see how this pair behaves going forward. In MEDIUM TERM for USD-JPY, we have Target of 160, We do not look things fundamentally, we follow (CYCLES) which is pointing BULLISH moves for $ and BEARISH moves for EQUITIES, Let’s see, for near term we resume next leg higher on DXY officially above 106.25 watch out.
AXISBANK view
AXISBANK; have possibly made a durable TOP at 970 which got printed on 04,January. But we need further conformation, it have multiple patterns support at 900, so a break of 900 is needed to conform the TOP for near term.
BELOW 900 it would have a PATTERN Breakdown for Targets of 861 and 820 on cash. It have its Quarterly results on 23rd,January. TIME wise, it have completed 1 CIRCLE from the TOP on 16th,January, so it have primary setup for a decline. Once we have PRICE conformation, we should get a Trending move till 01,FEB, which would complete 2nd CIRCLE of TIME!
$S&P;500; UPDATE
$S&P;500; had decent decline in yesterdays session, finally we got few answers which we were Looking for. Yesterday also was a key CYCLE date, which left us with greater clarity, specificlly the short term setup!
is very much clear now. In our last review here on 04,january, we did expected a rally towards 3,910-3,940 which we got. Infact it went all the way up till 4,015,
As long as any upside stays under DECEMBER highs, we are very much comfortable with our BEARISH outlook for short term. Above DECEMBER high of 4,101 things would get slightly different. But we do not give much probability for that as of Today.
Based on SQUARING PATTERN we possibly have peaked this rally at 4,015, a daily close below 3,888 would confirm that. A break below 3,850 would put S&P; back in extremely week position. Then break of DECEMBER low would just be a matter of few days.
and eventually it should break 3,751 this time. What that means? We shall discuss that in detail, as and when that breaks. Another thing which gives us more confidence is recent (INTER-MARKET DIVERSION) between DJI and NASDAQ.
This time the decline would be very IMPULSIVE so be very carefull. Once the PATTERN starts to play out, the decline would surprise even the biggest BEAR of street. Let’s see. OPEX would be Intresting!
NIFTY UPDATE
NIFTY have inched up gradually, hopefully we would have that opportunity to re-test the CHANNEL midpoint at 18,300 and add fresh SHORTS there. There is slight resistance at 18,145 on spot,above that it should go through.
Later today we would get more clarity On near term setup for U.S. MARKETS. Because MARKETS are facing an important CYCLE date. We should get few answers tonight, such as how long it can take for a hard turn lower. Watch out.
