RELIANCE have been constantly making Lower Lows for past several weeks and months.
This so far have been playing out according to our expectations.
We had our review here on 13th,JANUARY, Back then we had projected level of (2256) on downside.
STOCK have tested that and gone even below that significantly,
Infact it tested its 2022 lows of (2180) Yesterday,
Going forward we expect this stock to break (2180) and make fresh 52,week low

Our view here is bearish since early december.
From (2755) this has fallen down till (2180) and strange part is people are still bullish here.
We dont mind that, but in our opinion we can see this stock somewhere near (1960-2000)
For fresh entry all upsides till (2350) Should be utilized to sell.
If that doesnt happen then a daily close below (2150) would put it in lower square which would signal level of (2030) in near term.
Watch out for these levels.
Downside is not over yet.

NIFTY selloff shall accelerate below (16,850) on spot
On downside there are 2 levels to watch,
1, is a (HEXAGON) target which is placed at (16,660)
and
2, (HARMONIC CHANNEL) target which is placed at (16,550) below (16,850) both levels should get tested rapidly.
If (16,850) is held, then market will escape immediate collapse, it may consolidate further for some more days.
TIME wise this week would be very Important,
TOMORROW is MARCH EQUINOX which is widely followed, but I wont put greater significance on that.
For me, most significant CYCLE date is due on 23rd,MARCH.
Specially the low of 23rd,MARCH would be critical going forward.
Whatever market does in short term, whether they go up a bit then also it’s highly unlikely that we get a dramatic turn on upside.
Going forward it wont be a question of WILL,
it’s only the matter of WHEN.

NIFTY have printed fresh quarterly low Today.
So now along with weekly, and monthly, we now have a quarterly breakdown as well.
With each passing day structure for (NIFTY) is getting more and more BEARISH which in 2/3 months TF can drag prices towards (15,183) and even below.
Need to wait for sharp rallies to add fresh positions.
NIFTY BANK have not broken its previous quarterly lows we believe it’s just a matter of TIME before that happens.
For short term things should slow down a bit, we discussed 16,800 as critical level in near term markets have took Support there,
But the bounce after that seems corrective, it would be better if todays low hold and prices goes sideways for 1 or 2 days before next leg lower starts.

NIFTY tested genuine supports Yesterday,
Level of (17,035) was very Important in broader context,
We broke that Yesterday, so things are going to get more ugly which further validates our BEARISH outlook on MARKETS for MEDIUM term,
Note the phrase (MEDIUM TERM) !
Todays bounce seems a week bounce,
Anything which stays under (17,240) would be considered as a week bounce.
Above (17,240) things should go neutral for short-term.
BANKS are more week,
NIFTY BANK should test (38,100) and NIFTY (16,800) in near term,
Lets see.

L&T is holding up well dispite all market turbulence,
We believe it’s just a matter of TIME before this STOCK also join markets on downside.
This recent consolidation is an opportunity to get in for some shorts.
Prefered entry would be closer to (2200) on cash.
This may take its TIME to fall, but at this point we want to trade STOCKS who are at their early stages in decline,
Coming to its PATTERNS now,
STOCK recently gave a (HEXAGON) breakdown below )2120) its PATTERN objective is (1960) in medium term,
For short term minor support is at (2100) once that breaks it should move down till (2035) and (1960) eventually.
TIME wise next week would be very critical.

NIFTY is sinking hard,
Last FRIDAY we were looking at 3,levels on downside,
Levels were (17,227) (17,100) and (17,035) so far we got (17,227) and (17,100) on spot,
Next level we are watching,
Very closely is (17,035) this wont be an easy level to break,
But looking at the PATTERN placement we expect the break of this level in Coming days,
Any bounce till (17,500) must be utilized to create fresh shorts.
Dont fall for news narratives,
This MARKET is not falling because of any news,
TIME CYCLES are real problems.
And when short term CYCLES are turning BEARISH markets are collapsing like anything.
The short term CYCLE dates are due next week,
So for short term there is no relief this week,
In case market does rally that would just be a trap,
Genuine support is closer to (17,000) for short term.

M&M is flashing indications for a major trend reversal.
The print below (1,211) today have certainly conformed more PRICE pressure going forward.
There are 2,PRICE PATTERNS which are Trending lower,
1, )VIBRATION PATTERN)
and
2, (SQUARING PATTERN)
and both PATTERNS are suggesting levels of (1161) and (1110) on cash in Coming days.
TIME wise 17th,MARCH would be an important CYCLE date.
We mostly have a major TOP at (1397) here,
Let’s see,
Auto as a sector should be next to go under HAMMER.

NIFTY gave daily close below MONDAYS low Yesterday,
which gave the BEARISH confirmations from (TIME CYCLES),
todays Gap-down have gone through key PRICE points,
the most significant level was (17,427) on spot,
A break of that have signalled levels of (17,227) and (17,035) in near term.
This shall co-inside with our (HEXAGON) target of (17,100) which we shared few days back.
The manner in which market is sinking should not come as a surprise.
On wednesday we warned that (NIFTY) may have peaked at MONDAYS high of (17,799) we would again focus on the fact that, markets are in a MEDIUM term downtrend,
and this correction is likely to last for several months.
So dont get exited with 2 or 4% bounce from any bottom,
the actual bottom is miles away from current levels,
Note upsides would still come but trend reversal is less likely,
utilize those upsides to sell, and stay with the primary trend, which is down.

NIFTY probably peaked at MONDAYS high of (17,799) to confirm that spot has to go below (17,550)
A daily close below (17,671) would give a BEARISH indication on (TIME CYCLES)
Several major markets including U.S. MARKETS have already given that BEARISH signal of TIME, with their yesterdays closing.
Not only (EQUITY MARKETS) $ too have confirmed a BULLISH move on both (PRICE) and (TIME) parameters.
Going forward $ should finally take out (106.25) the level we have been focusing since January.
As posted earlier on 20th,January, a move above (106.25) would take $ above 2022 highs of (114.78) in matter of 3-4 months.
It has tested patience, but that should pay-off now.
Would be intresting to see how markets reacts to stronger $ even if we look at VIX that too is getting closer to 13, a sustained move above 13 on INDIA VIX should take it higher till 18,
Watch out
and wait for markets to close below MONDAYS low !

NIFTY naking things intresting now.
This recent bounce may revive Hopes for a TREND Change, but unfortunately that wont happen.
This may sound strange, but according to medium term patterns (NIFTY) still have plenty of work to do on downside.
Now this term (MEDIUM TERM) has to be understood wisely, it gets tough to UPDATE short term levels in real time specially when markets are very active, so I prefer to update only the medium term structure, and I personally take heavy trades based on that.
If I trade quarterly OPTIONS then my view has to be atleast for 2 months minimum.
So based on that view, such strong upsides does not impact those trades
At few occasions these upsides helps to add position’s.
Coming to near term setup now, last week I mentioned MONDAY 6th and 8th MARCH are 2,key CYCLE dates.
Today being a VIBRATION DATE and on wednesday it would be a HARMONIC DATE,
So for Today we mark the intraday low which is printed till closing, and then we shall wait for a daily close below it from wednesday,
Once this happens markets should resume it’s downtrend,
So it’s a process which we have to follow if looking for an immediate sell off.
For medium term direction of markets is decided by PATTERNS such as (HEXAGON) or (HARMONIC CHANNEL) and the speed or velocity of that direction is decided by short term TIME CYCLE DATES.
So watch out.