Author: SAAHIL BELIM

MY NAME is SAAHIL and I have been actively trading in EQUITY MARKETS from 2014. I have been using Gann theory in my TRADING JOURNEY since 2016. my approach to Gann THEORY is totally different than what you may have seen or heard in various YOUTUBE VIDEOS. I have developed multiple MATHEMATICAL MODELS which are based on METHODS described by sir gann in his courses. I never had used any kind of CHARTS to identify the TREND. hens I never share CHARTS to illustrate my view. I like to keep things SHORT and to the POINt!

NIFTY OPTIONS TRADE

NIFTY is unlikely to cross 22,500 in near future so I would be selling 22,500 call for MARCH series at 270.
this is for monthly series.
frankly i dont think you have to buy any hedge for this trade.
On 28th MARCH this call should expire at 0.

see there is a risk in every trade.
Our job is to acknowledge the market direction and execute appropriate trades managing our RISK.

BEST WISHES for the month ahead.

for non directional traders who have decent pockets.
below strategy is for you

sell 22500 straddle for 25th APRIL expiry,
combined premium as of now is 534+478=1012 points this would secure zone of 21,500-23,500 risk free for you.
now because our overall view is BEARISH  we shall hedge this trade with 21500 put of same expiry at 161.
this shall protect your downsides also once 22000 breaks on APRIL FUTURES you would have to cover your put shorts.

feel free to connect with me regarding any doubts.

MARKET UPDATE

NIFTY found support in zone of 21,800-21,850 which was an important support as we discussed in WEDNESDAY’S EOD UPDATE.
I posted clearly that dispite supports been broken and TIME CYCLES giving a BEARISH crossover downside move for NIFTY would not be straight forward atleast not until spot maintains above 21,800.

going forward that level of 21,800 would hold a meaningful significance.
for short term dispite todays upside nothing changes materially.
NIFTY upsides are likely to capped under the zone of 22300-22600 for entire month of MARCH.

during last 6 weeks INDICES have largely consolidated.
Infact returns on 2 month basis for NIFTY is less then 2%.
that actually shows loss of MOMENTUM on larger TIME FRAME.

february wasn’t really a trending month for NIFTY expecting MARCH to square that off.
this should be an intresting month.
for extreme short term because TOMORROW is a special session it’s going to be slightly complicated.
main reason would be,
what you buy today and tomorrow is not allowed to sell on MONDAY so for us critical day from here would be on TUESDAY.

NIFTY still falls in sideways category of TREND as of now but NIFTY BANK is certainly week as we have discussed earlier.
here we would still expect a break of JANUARY LOW in coming days.https://ganninsides.com/2024/02/28/nifty-eod-update-for-28-02-2024/

NIFTY EOD UPDATE FOR 28/02/2024

NIFTY broke below all key supports today.
So we do have REVERSAL signs in place.
As I posted earlier a daily close below 26th,FEBRUARY LOW would be a BEARISH sign on TIME FRONT.
now when we have got that so let’s see how things goes in next few days.

On NIFTY still downside move is not straight forward.
21,800-21,850 could still act as a near term support,
but once that also goes it’s all over because below 21,800 NIFTY could have a sharp fall towards the zone of 21,250-21,450 that too in a trending manner.

NIFTY BANK as we discussed in morning gave a print of 46,100 so setup for a waterfall decline has developed here.
Ideally it should move lower swiftly down and retest its JANUARY LOW of 44,429 as early as 8th,MARCH.

still watch out for SBI and RELIANCE a lower low below todays imtraday low would further intensify the momentum on downside.

AXISBANK UPDATE

AXISBANK is approaching a major PATTERN support at 1050 on cash.
A lower low below 1050 would open up targets of 1005 and 960 in coming days.
I have been BEARISH on private BANKS since last several weeks.
Infact HDFCBANK is my TOP pick on short side.
AXIS too is joining that list.
I could have went after ICICI too.
it’s only matter of selecting.
Let’s see,
watch out for supports.

MARKETS MID WEEK UPDATE

NIFTY have less then 48 hours to achieve our upside target objective of 22,325 on spot.
it cannot go on this way any more.
its baffling at the same time quiet hilarious that we are not getting even a 100 points of move on 1 direction.
Let’s see whether month end flows or MSCI rebalancing helps us to get those targets or not.

MONDAY was an important CYCLE DATE as we discussed earlier.
So as long as MONDAYS LOW holds on closing basis overall setup is likely to stay sideways to up.
Only a close below MONDAYS LOW would turn the setup BEARISH.

NIFTY BANK should be a key INDEX to track.
A print of 46,100 on cash would be a BEARISH sign.
A case for a waterfall decline could actually open up below that.
Watch out very closely.

RELIANCE should avoid the print of 2900 else entire NIFTY could feel the pain.
Things are approaching border lines critical 4 hours for MARKETS.

MARKETS WEEKLY PREVIEW

SIDEWAYS WEEK FOR INDIAN MARKETS.

NIFTY had a dull week where accept TUESDAY and THURSDAY no major volatility was seen.
Although new highs were made which we did discussed on last SUNDAY,
but the lackluster PRICE ACTION at highs with absolutely no MOMENTUM actually leaves less scope for PRICE EXPANSION on upside.
Still we have been working with a target of 22,325,
but for some reasons INDEX has so far failed to achieve that target.
let’s see next week.

I have described this entire upmove as a TRAP and so far the overall PRICE ACTION have completely confirmed that.
here we all need to understand the objective of a TRAP!  we cannot have a TRAP for a tiny higher high above a prior high.
we so far have not even got a 1% move on upside above the previous high of 22,126.
so all said and done  as long as NIFTY spot stays above 21,800-22,000 higher highs are more likely.

MARKET MOVING WEEK ON TIME FRONT

TIME wise NEXT WEEK NIFTY would enter in its 49th week from MARCH 2023 LOW,
this is an important TIME development since this is happening on WEEKLY T/F.
DURING the WEEK dates of 26th 28th and 29th could generate peak VIBRATIONS.
26th specificlly because that’s an ANNUAL CYCLE DATE.
From 1st week of MARCH the overall intensity of MARKETS would reach at totally at a different level because on monthly T/F in MARCH all global INDICES would aline more then 4 CYCLES from various LOWS.
WOULD discuss this in greater detail in next weekly post.

U-S-INDICES reached fresh highs post Q4 print from NVIDIA.

Despite one selloff after another leading to increased volatility, the markets are currently hitting all-time highs as the speculative chase for return heats up.
“I am not a fan of Soros, but this market has the look and feel of the dot com bust of 2000. In a few short words, the AI investment phenomenon is feeding on itself just as the internet and fiber did in 1999.
If you have been following me since OCTOBEr,
I layed down a small possiblity of NASDAQ going for a BUBBLE.
I also said this at that TIME as well  that it’s easy to refer MARKET BUBBLES after they are BURSTED but very tough to call them in real time.
In DECEMBER when NASDAQ broke above JULY high the possiblity of a MARKET BUBBLE actually confirmed.

I dont want to repeat all those things which various X accounts are putting up on daily basis.
INDICES are more concentrated on handful of tech and AI STOCKS everyone knows that,
that’s an easy thing to do!!
let’s do something which is not easy!

TECHNICAL UPDATE

In my previous weekly UPDATE I shared the date of 20th FEBRUARY as an important CYCLE DATE.


I also posted very clearly that to hint a TOP INDICES have to close below the INTRADAY LOW of 20th,FEBRUARY.
MARKETS fell on 20th but failed to close below that days LOW.
GOING FORWARD the faith of this AI MARKET rally lies entirely on 20th FEB LOW.
Only a daily close below 20th FEB LOW would confirm a TOP of this MARKET at much higher degree of trend.
If you prefer to follow the trend then have patience until this happens.

On PRICE front PRICE-TIME-EQUALITY LEVELS for S&P and NASDAQ are placed at 5010 and 15,600 respectively.
As long as these levels are held higher highs are likely.
On TIME FRONT next week would be 50th week from 2023 lows.
So volatility should further pick up,
specificlly DATES of 26th 28th and 1st MARCH would be critical CYCLE DATES during the week.

so all in all an intresting week coming up.
see you guys next week with a weekly preview.
thanks for reeding and BEST WISHES for the week ahead.

NIFTY UPDATE

NIFTY tested the half way mark of entire upmove from 21,530-22,249 at todays INTRADAY LOW and then turned higher.
As I have been mentioning since 15th,FEBRUARY  it’s a complicated setup not at all easy to trade.
if I.T.
&
RELIANCE doesn’t pick up from here then again selloff is likely from highs.
I had shared a simple target of 22,325 on spot,
but it’s not happening.
still as long as spot closes above 22,000 or holds the print of 21,850 we still have to stay open for upside target.