MARKET Overview

Lenin’s quote, ‘There are decades where nothing happens, and then weeks where decades happen’ – is a great description for the past few weeks. Especially since he’s Russian. The way markets have moved in last 3 weeks signifies this statement. The pullback which started yesterday has still continued. For us this is still a pullback which has extended further. But frankly this has gone above our expectations. But in markets you have to be prepared for such things. Yesterday we added APRIL puts at 16,360 and we added that further after todays opening. So we have taken significant positions based on our view and pattern studies. Confidence, conviction, temprament and patience all 4 things are required to trade such market. We had and we still have a bearish outlook in markets. 15,500 is still a pending target on downside. Bare markets does have sharp rallies. And we just witnessed 1 such rally. MARKETS around the world has given a TIME PATTERN breakdown in February. For NIFTY that pattern Target is 14,400 on spot. Just imagine. You may call me a crazy analyst. But the TIME setup has suggested us this Target in coming quarters. For near term we are working with 15,500 as a Target. Feel free to save this post. We shall remind this post again when NIFTY tests 15,500.

NIFTY UPDATE

NIFTY has closed the Gap which it opened on Monday. We did expected a pullback and NIFTY has given that. For now it’s just a pullback there is no significant improvement in overall structure. Market is going up to come down. Do remember the bounce from 16,200 to 16,800 and the way it fizzled out. We are looking opportunities to sell this rally. But because we have an event to deal with Tomorrow we are hedging our short trades to control our risk. In case MARKET decides to get adventurous. The positional view remains bearish. In last 2 days commodity markets have witnessed crazy moves. We still believe this should continue. OIL and METALS were already on a role but yesterday GOLD too joined the party. Do keep an eye on that plenty of juice left on upside on GOLD.

NIFTY extending its pullback. It could still go on only if it manages to protect 15,985 on spot. The moment it breaks game would get over for bulls. In high volatile markets price does fluctuates significantly but which move is real and which move is fake. That’s decided only using the TIME FACTOR. I really should not mention same point again and again. But would say one more time, this rally would fizzle out. Whether that happens Tomorrow or next week that doesn’t matter. We have that Temprament and Patience to reach our desired destination. So do understand our point of view.

NIFTY bulls we do care for you. In case you need fresh stop for your longs then move your stops to 16,100 on spot. Be sensibl with your positions and do respect the TIME.

NIFTY bulls you have a chance to exit. If you do not wish then move your stops to 16,190 on spot.

MARKET UPDATE

Surprising to se NIFTY not giving any meaningful bounce. 15,700-15,900 is not a zone to create fresh shorts. Either you hold your positions or reduce them it depends on individual time horizon and trading instrument. We need rallies to sell for our Target of 15,500 this is a market to take directional trades. Managing the risk element. Asian and European Markets are significantly below 24th,February lows. But U.S. MARKETS are still Trading above february lows. So they have significant space to go down. Anyone who wants to understand how sharp bare market rally can occur! They can go and check charts of NASDAQ in last week. Try to understand market behaviour.

USD-INR UPDATE

USD-INR going on expected lines. MARCH futures have made High of 77.34 Today. View Posted here on 11th,February: the day when it gave TRIANGLE PATTERN breakout. Pattern Targets are 78 and we still maintain that. We initiated Futures Trade here at 75.20 and added positions here at 74.50. On profit terms such trades are always special. In future we would look to evaluate opportunities in other currency pairs as well. Based on our Understanding of Gann Patterns.

NIFTY UPDATE

After a 400 points Gap down there is hardly anything you can do as a Trader. Todays low is only 200 points away from our pattern target of 15,500 on spot. But this Target is still pending. Just a matter of time NIFTY has to go there to complete the Complex Vibration Pattern. The Trade was and still remains on a short side. We ideally should close below Fridays low. Which conforms the Bearish Time. I won’t be surprised if NIFTY closes todays gap. If it does we would like to add our positions on short side. We have exit pole outcome and election results to react during the week. So voletility would be the part of life. Just manage your risk and avoid longs life would be very much easy.

NIFTY UPDATE

NIFTY has given bounce near a Hexagon Level of 16,150. We posted in morning at one point short trades has to be converted in cash. Since Today was a VIBRATION DATE such Voletility was always expected. Few times in past we clearly mentioned that you cannot be on both sides of market. You need to be particular with your view and direction. We personally preferred to avoid long trades. Today’s low is very critical. Mentioned this in morning as well. A close below Todays low would make things very nasty in short term. It also would be a daily close below HEXAGON level. So watch out for that. There is a old love affair between the month of MARCH and Daily gaps. So that shall continue. On Monday we have HARMONIC TIME CYCLE day. So voletility is here to stay. We shall attempt fresh shorts below 16,200 on spot. For now let it go up we are not interested in longs.

NIFTY below February Lows

NIFTY broke the low of 24th,February. We discussed about it Yesterday. In case 16,200 had not broken Today then few conditions would had applied. Criteria was also mentioned in Yesterdays post. But now when NIFTY has broke the low of 24th,Feb shows that our expectations were correct. But we cannot state like sir (Gann): that if it doesn’t happen then there are some mistakes in our calculation. We are his students so we do focus on probabilities. Markets are always supreme beyond all analysis. Going forward short trades need to be covered at one point to in cash profits. So need to consider that fact. Whatever low is made Today would be critical for Global Markets. Also do watch out for 16,150 which Is a Hexagon Level.

NIFTY View

NIFTY have time till tomorrow to break the low of 24th Feb if that low doesn’t breaks then few conditions would apply. Although the medium term texture is not going to change. In short term TIME would go in a sideways consolidation. And it shall remain there until MARKET gives a daily close below Tomorrows low. You may find this bit complicated. But that is how it is! Nobody is allowed to break TIME rules. On PRICE front NIFTY have a Pattern resistance at 16,850 which if gets crossed then move towards 17,000 and 17,180 would be on offer but we would not prefer to chase that.