When Headlines Get Loud, Structure Gets Important”

When headlines get loud, structure gets more important.

As global narratives once again shift toward trade tensions, it’s important to separate emotional noise from market behaviour.

Tariff headlines are back in focus.
Donald Trump has once again spoken about imposing fresh tariffs on NATO nations, and this naturally raises the probability of a fresh bout of volatility when global markets reopen.

But this is a movie the markets have already watched many times in 2025.

The sequence has been strikingly consistent: first comes the tariff announcement, risk sentiment weakens, markets wobble, and bearish narratives dominate. Then, within days, the tone softens, reactions fade, and markets recover — very often going on to make new highs.

Because of this repeated behaviour, tariff headlines by themselves have not proven to be a reliable signal to carry shorts through 2025.

Our practical market experience this year suggests something very different:
👉 buy the tariff fear and hold for a few days.

So far, this template has delivered a 100% success ratio.

Now once again, we are approaching a similar psychological and structural zone. Volatility may expand and headlines may look unsettling — but unless price structure breaks decisively, this kind of news flow has historically created opportunity rather than trend reversals.

Bringing the focus back to our markets.

When trading resumes tomorrow morning, Indian markets will not only be reacting to global tariff noise. We will also be digesting a heavy set of quarterly earnings, led by Reliance, ICICI Bank, and HDFC Bank, along with several other important names. This makes the opening phase of the week event-driven, emotionally charged, and potentially volatile.

From a technical perspective, one level clearly stands above everything else:

👉 January 12th intraday low: 25,473

This is the line in the sand.

If Nifty is unable to protect 25,473, then weakness can intensify toward 25,200 and below.
However, if this level continues to hold, the current phase is more likely to resolve into a base and a renewed rally leg.

One factor that is still working against the bulls is that Nifty has not yet been able to sustain decisively above the 25,800 zone. This tells us that upside momentum is still incomplete. For strength to truly expand, Nifty must overcome and hold above 25,800. That is the level which can unlock a faster upside phase.

On the time-cycle front, this week itself carries importance.
👉 Tuesday and Friday stand out as key cycle dates. These windows often act as reaction points, acceleration points, or inflection points, making price behaviour around them especially meaningful.

All in all, we are stepping into a week where news, earnings, price structure, and time cycles are all active at the same time.

That combination often precedes expansion in volatility — and clarity in direction.

Closing thought:

Markets don’t move because headlines are scary — they move because structure breaks or holds.
This week is not about what is being said. It is about which levels and which dates the market respects.

👉 An exciting, sensitive, and potentially decisive week awaits us.