“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”
Time unfolds in a compelling duality: the vast expanse of years that can pass with a deceptive tranquility, entire decades slipping by in a quiet hum of seemingly unbroken routine, where the currents of change flow so subtly as to be almost imperceptible, leaving behind a faint echo and a sense of continuity bordering on stagnation, like a slow, predictable river. Yet, sharply contrasting this are those extraordinary, compressed moments, intense and pivotal weeks – often unforeseen – where the very fabric of existence seems to warp and reconfigure itself. In these concentrated bursts, the accumulation of events, the confluence of forces, and the sheer weight of consequence create an accelerated history, with changes so rapid and their implications so far-reaching that they imprint themselves upon our understanding of the world and etch themselves into the collective memory with the profound significance and transformative power typically associated with the slow, gradual evolution of generations.”
“What a truly jarring week it was for U.S. markets! The unprecedented and frankly breathtaking decline of over 10% sent shockwaves through the financial world. This kind of sharp downturn is a genuinely rare event, marking only the third such instance since the tumultuous 2008 financial crisis. And for those who entered the markets in the optimistic period following the COVID crash of 2020, this sudden and significant drop represents their harsh introduction to a true bear market. The comfortable gains they may have become accustomed to have evaporated, and investors, particularly these newer ones, are likely facing a period of considerable anxiety and, yes, very, very painful losses in the coming months.”
“Looking back to mid-February now, it’s quite something to recall sharing a post outlining a potential cycle peak for the S&P 500 within the 6144 to 6219 level on the cash index. And with an almost eerie precision, the market obliged, topping out at 6147 on February 19th. Mark my words – that seemingly innocuous high of 6147 will, I believe, be etched into the memories of market participants for a very, very long time. It marked a significant turning point, a subtle yet crucial peak before the tides dramatically shifted.”
“Having anticipated a significant decline following that peak, I projected the index would drop towards the 5410 and 5119 levels. Remarkably, we did indeed reach these targets. While I initially expected this move to unfold over a slightly longer timeframe, the market witnessed a significant wave of liquidation, particularly after the tariffs announcement. Even without that specific news, I believe the market’s underlying technicals were pointing towards a downturn. However, this sharp and swift decline has injected extreme volatility into the overall technical setup. It’s crucial to remember that some of the most powerful rallies often occur within bear market conditions. Therefore, we should anticipate a sharp bounce in the coming days, which will likely be followed by a resumption of the downtrend.”
“Of course, these significant market shifts won’t materialize overnight; they will naturally take some time to fully play out. However, as professional traders, our approach to all trades from this juncture must be with slightly reduced volumes. These are indeed rare and highly volatile market conditions, and we need to exercise prudence to avoid aggressive positioning that could lead to regret later. As long as the CBOE VIX remains elevated above 25, we should not expect a return to market stability or ‘sanity.’ In these circumstances, even a single tactical error could potentially lead to a complete exit from the game. It’s crucial to recognize that this market environment is significantly different from the relatively calmer conditions we’ve become accustomed to over the past five years.”
“My near-term analysis suggests that the S&P 500 is likely to find a footing within the 4850 to 4950 support zone. Coupled with the important time cycle dates falling around April 9th, 14th, and 21st, these factors increase the probability of a significant short-term bounce. Savvy traders will be watching these levels and dates closely, potentially looking for opportunities to capitalize on this upward move. However, it’s absolutely crucial to approach this bounce with caution and a clear exit strategy. Given my broader expectation for levels below 4200 in the coming months, this rally should be viewed primarily as a counter-trend move. Therefore, any long positions taken during this bounce should be managed with tight stops, and traders should be prepared to reduce exposure or even consider establishing short positions as the rally begins to show signs of exhaustion. The key is to use this bounce strategically to position for the anticipated continuation of the downtrend, rather than getting caught up in what is likely to be a temporary reprieve.”
India’s Resilience Amidst Global Market Turbulence: A Closer Look
“Turning our attention to the Indian markets, the situation is notably less severe compared to the turbulence we’ve observed in the U.S. As of Friday’s close, the India VIX remained below 14. Remarkably, even despite Friday’s sell-off, the VIX barely registered a significant upward movement. Observing this level of complacency leading up to Thursday’s close, my view was that as long as Tuesday’s intraday low held, there was a reasonable possibility that the NIFTY could have retested the 23600 level before resuming its downward trajectory. However, the sharp sell-off in the S&P 500 on Thursday evening had a cascading effect. On Friday morning, the NIFTY broke decisively below its Tuesday intraday low of 23136, and that immediately negated any near-term upside potential I had been considering.”
“During the second half of March, I frequently provided updates on the NIFTY, and I’m sharing a couple of those updates below.”
https://ganninsides.com/2025/03/18/nifty-resistance-support-and-time-based-analysis/
“On March 18th, I shared a post with all my subscribers in which I highlighted three very important time cycle dates: March 24th, April 4th, and April 7th.”
“The fact that the NIFTY topped out on March 25th, just a day after my identified time cycle date of March 24th, underscores the accuracy and potential predictive power of these cyclical tools. It reinforces the idea that late March was a pivotal period for the Indian market. Now, we need to carefully analyze the market’s behavior around the April 4th time cycle, which we already know brought significant volatility, and the upcoming April 7th date. Will these dates also align with important market shifts, further validating the significance of these time cycles in our analysis?”
https://ganninsides.com/2025/03/21/nifty-short-term-gains-long-term-concerns/https://ganninsides.com/2025/03/21/nifty-short-term-gains-long-term-concerns/
“So, the NIFTY’s high on March 25th reached 23869. This is remarkably close to the 23800 level I highlighted in my post on March 21st as a potential upside target before a move lower. This near-perfect alignment significantly reinforces the validity of that particular analysis and the methodologies employed to identify that potential resistance zone. It suggests that the NIFTY did indeed test the upper end of the expected range before the bearish sentiment took hold, leading to the subsequent decline we’ve observed.”
“Looking at the immediate short term, the opening on Monday morning will be crucial. Setting aside futures considerations for now, critical support on the spot NIFTY lies within the 22300 to 22500 range. Should the index fail to hold this 22300 level, we should anticipate a new low for 2025, breaking below the March low of 21964. I held a strong conviction that 21964 was unlikely to be a significant bottom, a rationale I explained on March 13th. While many of my subscribers disagreed with this view at the time, the current price action lends credence to that perspective. If 22300 is breached, the NIFTY is likely to head towards the 21300 level on the spot index. Regarding the time aspect, following the April 7th cycle date, the next important time cycle dates to watch will be around April 15th and April 21st.”
“Therefore, while we watch for potential footing in the S&P 500 and critical support levels in the NIFTY alongside key time cycle dates, my overall analysis continues to point towards lower levels in the months ahead. Treat any short-term rallies as counter-trend moves, manage your risk meticulously, and use these opportunities to strategically position for the expected continuation of the downtrend. Thank you for considering my analysis.”
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