Market Crash: My Prediction, Your Reality.”
INDIAN MARKETS have witnessed a relentless selloff since the start of the month. I accept few, if any, actually saw it coming. Actually, in a normal state of mind, people do not anticipate such crazy stuff. But I was one of those few analysts who actually saw this selloff coming. If you have been following me, especially since the second half of September, then you must have been aware of my views. I was very clear with my bearish view and despite the markets moving higher, I maintained my view. In fact, I did put things in technical terms.”
Let’s dive back into two of my posts from that era.
https://ganninsides.com/2024/09/13/us-market-strength-ignites-indian-rally-but-volatility-looms/
“On September 13th, following a 500-point rally in the Nifty, I shared a post highlighting a potential conflict between price and time, which could lead to volatile market movements. Regardless of current market conditions, the Nifty was well-positioned to test the 24,020 level in the coming days. As predicted, the Nifty nearly reached this level on Friday’s low. In the same post, I also mentioned my trading strategy of adding 25,000 put options, which I personally averaged until the premium reached 250. I emphasized that time cycles often achieve their predetermined goals, and this particular instance was a perfect example.”
https://ganninsides.com/2024/09/25/niftys-bullish-structure-nearing-completion/
“On September 25th, I highlighted the completion of a bullish structure in the Nifty Index. I also identified September 26th as a crucial turning point, and indeed, Nifty reached its peak on September 27th. This period was particularly significant for Nifty, as it squared its price with time on October 1st and 3rd. According to Gann Theory, such price and time squaring often signals a major trend reversal.”
Next week, October 28th, marks a critical TIME cycle date for NIFTY. The intraday low on this day will set the tone for the following trading sessions. Stay alert.”
As mentioned, I’ve been holding December 25,000 puts since late September. I plan to lock in substantial profits near the 23,900 level, but will retain a few positions until December’s end. Our cycle studies highlight the 5th August low of 23,893 as a critical pivot for Nifty. A daily close below this level would signal extreme bearishness for the overall market and potentially trigger deeper declines. I don’t want to put a specific number here because that would deviate many from the whole process of trading with the periodic pullbacks. I have already shared the target with all of my subscribers.”
One very interesting thing that has happened during the last 4 weeks is that Indian markets have been falling while global markets, on the other hand, have been relatively quiet and stable. Although I have been expecting a selloff to take place in global markets as well, so far that hasn’t materialized exactly as I have been anticipating. This week, however, we’re seeing positive signs emerging in several US indices. Let’s delve into that.”
Navigating the Storm: A Guide to the Upcoming Market Turbulence
“This week in the U.S., there are clear and convincing signs of a major reversal on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI). However, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have not yet fully confirmed this trend.”
https://ganninsides.com/2024/10/12/nifty-finds-footing-but-u-s-market-challenges-loom/
“On October 12th, I predicted a market reversal in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) beginning on October 14th and in the S&P 500 beginning on October 16th. The indices, however, peaked one day later than anticipated.”
This week, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) and the S&P 500 have suffered declines. As discussed earlier, the DJI has already shown signs of a reversal. However, the S&P 500 still needs to break its support level, currently situated between 5720 and 5740. Once this support level is breached, we could see a sharp decline towards 5610 and 5475 in the short term. If this anticipated downturn materializes, the S&P 500 could be poised for a more substantial long-term correction.”
Tech Earnings Frenzy and Potential Downturn: What to Watch Next Week
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has decisively reversed course, signaling a potential downward trend. While the S&P 500 is still hesitant, it’s likely to follow suit, dragging the Nasdaq along with it. Next week Based on historical patterns, the upcoming time cycles around October 31st and November 1st could be pivotal for U.S. indices. Traders and investors should be prepared for increased market volatility as these dates approach. Also, next week, big tech companies are reporting their earnings, which should bring some excitement to the otherwise boring markets. Personally, I’ll be tracking Microsoft’s results very closely.”
“While the current market conditions present challenges, it’s important to maintain a balanced perspective. By closely monitoring key support levels and upcoming earnings reports, investors can make informed decisions and potentially capitalize on opportunities that may arise from market volatility.”
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