https://ganninsides.com/2024/09/11/all-roads-lead-to-rome/
“Markets rallied sharply yesterday, driven by weekly options expiry and a strong surge in U.S. indices. As we previously discussed, September 11th was a critical cycle date, and we anticipated increased market volatility from that point. We’ve indeed seen significant price swings since then. The Nifty has also become more volatile, and this volatility, both in U.S. and Indian markets, is likely to intensify further. This heightened volatility could persist until at least October 15th.”
“Despite short-term gains, the S&P 500 remains at risk of retesting the 5,119 level in October, regardless of whether a new high is reached. Market sentiment is expected to shift following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy announcement on September 18th.”
“Yesterday’s NIFTY session saw a significant breakthrough, closing above its crucial resistance level of 25333. While I won’t delve into the nuances of spot closes or edge-of-day behavior, this development marks a turning point for the immediate term. NIFTY remains well-positioned to test levels closer to 24020 in the coming days. Despite seeming counterintuitive, the cyclical alignment on daily and weekly timeframes suggests a potential pullback in both Indian and U.S. markets. Regardless of current market conditions, this time-based reversal indication is unlikely to change. In essence, we’re witnessing a conflict between price and time. As traders, we can only observe and benefit from the wide fluctuations this conflict generates. Ultimately, time will prevail, achieving its predetermined goals.”
“Historically, NIFTY’s performance after September 15th has been bearish over the past two years (2022 and 2023). While we can’t expect an exact repeat, it’s reasonable to anticipate a similar downward trend this year. Moreover, the market’s recent completion of important weekly cycles from March and October 2023 lows suggests heightened volatility and potential price fluctuations in the coming days.”
The Illusion of Control: Trading in a Time-Driven Market
So “Based on our analysis, we’re continuing to accumulate December 25,000 put positions and plan to hold them until mid-October. Our strategy involves identifying strategic timeframes to counter prevailing market trends. We’ve successfully executed similar trades in late May and late July, and we’re optimistic about the potential outcome this time.”
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