DEVELOPMENT in GLOBAL EQUITY and FOREX MARKETS actually derailed the uptrend in INDIAN MARKETS.
As i noted in above post the uptrend in indian markets was not sustainable.
I did spelled out multiple reasons to back that thought process.
I very clearly said that dispite a 500 point upmove of 26th,july upsides on NIFTY is limited and I am no longer intrested in taking long trades.
many of my followers didn’t liked that view but unfortunately i couldn’t help them out.
but now one week down the line many would had realised the whole thought process.
Technicaly we were closely looking for the resistance of 25200 on spot.
INDEX went till 25078 and after that price registered a strong REJECTION and going forward this REJECTION could gradually turn out a meaningful REVERSAL.
would still take some time for that but that process should be underway.
for short term on price front we could see NIFTY dropping towards 24520 and 24210 on spot in coming days,
and on TIME front 5th,August is going to be a very important cycle date.
if markets starts to sustain below the intraday low of 5th,August then that would make the setup extremely bearish and with that kind of setup for NIFTY it would be easy to break the significant support of 24000.
Lets see or now mondays low would be of paramount importance for us.
Global markets were extremely in a risk off mode this week specialy Japanese markets and U-S-MARKETS.
NIFTY on other hand was relatively stable.
So lets review the global setup below.
U-S-INDICES first
As i discussed in previous weeks post we were looking for a counter trend bounce in major U-S-INDICES and during the week we actually got that bounce.
and once that counter trend vounce ended we got a very strong turn lower and things did unfolded exactly in the manner in which we were looking at.
So lets straight away discussed on the technical setup for S&P and NASDAQ.
S&P
Holding 5340 we were looking for a counter trend rally towards the zone of 5570-5610 initially index successfully managed to hold above 5340 and on Thursday made high of 5566 very close towards the lower edge of our projected zone.
The decline from Thursdays high has been extremely furious where we saw index dropping from 5566 to 5302 in just 24,hours.
Hens after such a sharp decline market would require some time to stabilise.
All though my target for this move for now is at 5200 on downside I dont expect further one way decline towards 5200.
with vix at 2024 highs we have to be prepared for extreme voletility on both sides.
eventualy 5200 will come but that still wont be the end of the decline.
Once 5200 breaks index would attempt a further extendtion of its decline towards 5020 which happens to be its 45 degree angle from its july high of 5669.
In my last weeks post i clearly mentioned that on 24th,of,JULY something very significant has happened and that has that potential to trigger a large scale reversal.
If during this decline if SPX drops below 5020 which i am sure it will then that would officialy conferm my view.
Would discuss this in further detail when SPX breaks 5020.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
On NASDAQ we were looking for a test of 18100 during the counter trend rally.
but index managed the move higher only till 17800.
Post that it too went for a wild ride on downside where it made low of 16582 on friday.
16800 was a key support here.
As long as index manages to hold below 16800 it would decline further towards 16200 which happens to be its 45 degree angle from its july high.
Once 16200 breaks we should get this index towards the January 2024 low.
Not immidiately but gradually.
Here too voletility is likely to stay extremely high so better not to get carried away with major swings.
A 2%+ up or a down day from here should be a regular affair.
On TIME front 5th,August Which is tomorrow is going to be a very important cycle date,
As i discussed this in indian markets section above will repeat it once again that if indices fails to sustain below 5th,August low then most probably markets would either consolidate or attempt a pullback.
So plan your short term trades accordingly.
coming to YEN now.
Last week i discussed the importance of YEN for the global financial markets.
Unfortunately many in INDIA doesn’t even understand the concept of a carry trade.
I tried to explained that in last weeks post.
but majority still felt that such macro things doesn’t matter for INDIAN MARKETS.
Anyways my job as an analyst is to highlight potential risks which could impact our trades and investments.
My job is not to convince everyone to consider and focus on all points which are discussed on this platform.
Now as far as YEN is cunserned level of 143 on USDJPY cross is absolutely critical.
Holding 143 things can stabilise but in case for any reason 143 breaks then that can trigger margin calls on all risky assets globally.
Take some time out and research on why that could happen.
thats it for now.
Lets see how things goes post 5th,August.
gann,insides 