2022 has almost ended during the year we have seen MARKETS swinging both ways. But today let’s try to understand how could 2023 play out for EQUITY MARKETS. MARKETS;in;2023 first of all if you are a medium to long term investor then I cannot wish you a (HAPPY NEW YEAR). Because it wont be a good year specially for long only investors. I kept alerting through out the year: that we are in a BEAR;MARKET for global equities and we have seen MARKETS declining globally.
But 2022 was all about a Technical price correction there was nothing like a CRASH. That was the only reason that dispite markets going down the ANALYST COMMUNITY never got uncomfortable infact they got more confident to buy dips. But unfortunately that dint worked in all SCRIPTS.
But this did worked for few STOCKS specially those who held major weight on Headline INDICES which kept retail investors happy. The actual pain was felt in BROADER MARKETS not only in INDIA but in U.S. as well. But there are very few folks those who really want to discuss the pain of small and midcaps.
I asked the same question in late NOVEMBER but got no answer, everyone was so exited that NIFTY has made a fresh all time highs. I wrote a post that TIME which no one liked. Infact in 1st 2,weeks of OCTOBER I had mentioned on a final push on upside.
Which we got, but it took extra time then what I thought price wise U.S. MARKETS did perfect pullback but NIFTY travelled bit more then what I expected. But never the less it dint changed anything.
Because the entire BEARISH view was never subject to any PRICE level or any ECONOMIC or geo-political reasons. It was entirely based on (TIME CYCLES) For NIFTY this entire upside from SEPTEMBER lows was totally deceptive and against major CYCLE Which in no ways could sustain for long.
We have seen markets give away 50% of those gains and going forward it would give up entire gains. In short term there would be upsides but in this post we are discussing market outlook for 2023. So let’s focus on that. For NIFTY 2023 average upside projections are at 23,000.
Which to me holds no relevance. According to TIME CYCLES 2023 could be a year of MARKET CRASH which would get extreme in certain TIME zones a very hard fall in EQUITY MARKETS is possible during the year which can drag NIFTY to not only towards 14,400 which I have been posting but it can go even lower then that..I have certain calculations which goes all the way down till 12,600 which could be a possiblity before 2023 ends. Sectors like BANKS and AUTO could provide that help to reach there. We are entering next phase of this BEARISH CYCLE: Which would be more painful then what we saw in 2022. In U.S. MARKETS I wrote a separate post on DJI earlier. So let’s move on to S&P;500; During the year I kept posting the target of 3,260 which will certainly come in 2023 But 3,260 was never the final target for this BEAR MARKET. It is a critical geometrical level but not something which is not breakable. My conservative projections on S&P would be 2,600-2,800 during 2023, focusing only conservatively now.
Not putting the maximum expectations at this point. U.S. MARKETS have performed exactly as per CYCLE rotation till this date, there are no irregular pattern developments like NIFTY. It is not easy to digest these levels as of today, But as the year progresses markets would keep finding appropriate and valid reasons to test new lows. It would be a gradual process to complete this BEAR MARKET decline. But good part is we may find the final low during the year and that would be a generational opportunity to create long term PORTFOLIO.
But you need to sit with appropriate cash today to invest at those levels. During the year there would be very sharp technical upsides from extreme levels but better to consider them as Trading rallies nothing beyond that.
This is going to be a very exiting year if you are a Gann Trader because there is a lot of clarity on how things are going to unfold from here. I would continue to put out short term updates on markets but the bigger picture has to be considered just to be more clear with overall structure.
So don’t mixup things specially if you are some one who prefer to trade in weekly OPTIONS. remember there are 365 days in a year, and all days will not end up with cuts. Would leave it here with festival greetings and a hope for a HAPPY NEW YEAR!
gann,insides 